PuckLuck Primer 11/2/23: The Betting Model Is Learning

One of the great things about betting on the NHL in the beginning of the season is if your projections are solid, you can have a major edge on the sportsbooks and betting public. One of the downsides is that you can miss out on some of the big leaps taken by players and teams that were unexpected.

Luckily, the PuckLuck model preseason projections have been remarkably solid, and we've been capitalizing on surprise teams such as the Philadelphia Flyers, Anaheim Ducks, and Vancouver Canucks. We also were all over the Boston Bruins still being dominant, as they've shown by going 8-0-1 in their first nine games.

There's always projections that haven't quite shown through, such as the struggling-to-score St. Louis Blues. As the sample size grows, so does our suspicion that this is just not a rough patch for the offense. That's where the model will learn and grow as the season progresses.

Eventually, there will be overcorrection in the market for the surprise success stories and failures. We'll be able to take advantage there with our numbers-based, more pragmatic approach.

As we really get into the thick of the season, most of our edge will come from poor assessment of goalies by the public, when in some instances a team's backup goalie is actually out-performing the starter by more advanced metrics. We're always on top of that, and that's why our Starting Goalies page will be vital to keep on your radar.

We're approaching the 10-game mark with each NHL team, so this is when it's really time to buckle up. With that said, let's get into tonight's 12-game slate and the wonderful betting edge it brings us:

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